Tuesday, August 7, 2018

Ranking the Schedule

After spending the last few weeks researching Mentor's ten opponents, I did my best to rank the games in terms of their difficulty. Maybe I will be way off, maybe not.

The Big Ones...

1. St Ignatius (Week 2): Year in and year out, St Ignatius has been the most consistent obstacle on Mentor's schedule since the two started playing in 2005. Coach Kyle has an 8-5 record in regular season games against Mentor. This game is on the road and Mentor has had trouble winning at Byers (2-4 record) in the regular season...although the Cards are 4-0 at Byers in the playoffs against St Ignatius. Offensively, St Ignatius will build around a strong running game while acclimating a new QB. Senior Bo Floyd (1,000-yard rusher last season) and junior Jack Welsh are backs that will test Mentor's run defense. Senior lineman Grant Abbot (Bowling Green) leads a big and talented line. Defensively, the Cats have another standout linebacker in Tommy Eichenberg (Boston College). He will be one of the top playmakers in the state. The Cats are great at using their 3-3 stack defense to frustrate Mentor's passing game. The secondary (led by standout corner Jett Elad and safety Danny Scelza) is very strong. You can bet that the Ignatius defense will be creating a lot of difficult situations for Mentor and their young QB, sophomore Ian Kipp.

2. St Edward (Week 1): Mentor graduated nine offensive starters last season. It would have been nice if Week 1 was against just about anyone else, but not many teams are willing to schedule Mentor. The Eagles have had the most success in Division I this decade, which includes three state titles since 2010. These two have met in the playoffs five times since 2010, with Mentor holding on for a 3-2 edge. The Eagles bring back a few impact starters on both sides of the ball. Garrett Dzuro will get the reigns all to himself after a season of sharing QB responsibilities with Zach Kincaid. Dzuoro has a couple of very talented returning skill players in WR Quintel Kent (Michigan) and RB Jordan Castelberry. The Eagles usually have one of the biggest and most talented offensive lines in the area. Defensively, there aren't as many returning starters. Safeties Caden Kolesar and Daylen Jernigan are two returning impact players that bring back talent and experience to the secondary.

3. Euclid (Week 9): On paper, Euclid might be the most talented opponent on Mentor's schedule. So why put them below St Ignatius and St Edward? Coaching, tradition, depth, and the date of the games are all factors. Mentor's inexperienced offense will look much better by late October than they will in the first game or two. That makes a difference in the difficulty of the matchup. In terms of regular season importance, this is one that will almost certainly decide the winner of the GCC. The Panthers are extremely talented on offense. Their offensive line is not as top heavy as Mentor two tackles headed to the Big Ten. But across the board, Euclid might have the more talented group. On paper, their running situation looks very strong with Michigan State commit Brandon Wright (6'3, 215) getting the bulk of the carries. Receiver Dre'Von Lindsay was a huge matchup problem for Mentor last year. Defensively, Euclid has some indiviual talent. Last year, Mentor scored 61 points on the Panthers. Unlike St Ignatius and St Edward, I think Euclid is a defense that Mentor can really expose. One thing in Euclid's favor is the location. The Cardinals are 8-0 at home against Euclid since 2004, but only 3-3 at Euclid.

Tier 2...

4. Solon (Week 8): In a tier all by themselves, Solon is very capable of beating Mentor and even winning the league. But as we saw last year, they are also capable of having the wheels fall off and come crashing through the end of the season. Solon's offense has some talent, starting with Trevon Raphael at receiver. He scored four touchdowns against Mentor last season in a variety of ways. If Mentor can't contain Raphael, this game will be a major challenge. One of Solon's biggest offensive concerns this season will be getting the QB position figured out. Both teams may end up starting a sophomore QB in this game as Solon's Pat McQuaide (son of Coach McQuaide) looks to be the favorite after getting some varsity reps last year. Defensively, Solon looks very strong at the defensive end position with big time recruit Nate Leskovec and three-year starter, David Marbury. The Comets have been a mainstay on Mentor's schedule for 20 years and they remain one of Mentor's main rivals.

Minor Challenge...

5. Strongsville (Week 4): The Mustangs have been building toward a season like this. Their senior class is deep, talented, and experienced. Many of them got varsity experience as sophomores. Their QB, Jony Major, even started a couple games (including one against Mentor) as a freshman. Major has a chance to be the best QB in the league in 2018. He has an experienced line led by Michigan State commit JD Duplain. Returning starters at skill positions makes for a potent offense. Strongsville has a tough schedule early in the season just like Mentor. This Week 4 game might feel like a must-win for both teams. Since 2006, Mentor has only had one season (2008) where they didn't beat the Mustangs. The game is at JTO Stadium, a place where Mentor has done extremely well. Defensively, it doesn't appear that Strongsville will be able to slow Mentor down. But if their offense gets going, we could see a shootout.

6. Glenville (Week 3): The Tarblooders posed a challenge last season for Mentor. The game was tight in the first half before Mentor pulled away in the 3rd quarter. The Tarblooders are big and physical on the lines. They usually have a very good run-stopping defense. That will put more pressure on sophomore Ian Kipp to make plays at QB. Glenville doesn't have a bunch of DI college recruits like the old days, but they will have enough speed and skill on the outside to keep Mentor's defense honest. Glenville hasn't been able to get enough consistency out of their passing game in several years. Going up against a one-dimensional offense is an advantage for Mentor's big and talented defensive line. This Week 3 game has a unique challenge as it comes on the heels of opening the season against St Edward and St Igantius.

Running Clock...

7. Medina (Week 6)
8. Brunswick (Week 5)
9. Elyria (Week 10)
10. Shaker Heights (Week 7)

Mentor is 26-1 against these four teams since 2005. The lone loss was against Elyria (27-24) in 2015. Most of the games haven't been very close, and there is no reason why any of these games should be close this season either. None of these four have the talent, depth, or experience to match up with the top teams of the GCC. All of these coaches are still in the process of building the program. Medina or Brunswick might get four or five wins a piece, but don't expect any of those to be against Mentor. Elyria and Shaker are going to struggle to win more than a game or two this season.

Next Blog: Preseason All-GCC Team

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