History...
These two teams have only played each other once - and it was on the grandest of stages: the 2007 Division I state championship game. Fawcett Stadium was cold and wintry that night. St Xavier made the game feel even colder as they handed Mentor a 27-0 shutout. Since the resurgence of the program (especially the offense) in the early 2000's, that was the only time Mentor had a goose egg on the score board. The St Xavier 2007 team is widely considered one of the top Ohio teams of the last 25 years. It was the last game for Mentor's Mr. Football QB Bart Tanski. Not a good memory for Mentor fans.
Last Week...
Mentor played at home and knocked off St Ignatius in a wild 63-56 game. It featured several lead changes, over 1400 yards of total offense, several broken records, and 17 offensive touchdowns. It was a night to remember for many at the JTO.
The premier public/private rivalry in NEO is Mentor/St Ignatius. The premier public/private rivalry in SWO is St Xavier/Colerain. Coincidentally, both games were in Week 2. Unlike the offensive explosion in Lake County, the boys in Cincinnati had a defensive slugfest. Colerain won the game, 13-10, in overtime. Instead of 1,400 yards of offense, it was closer to 400. Instead of 17 touchdowns, there were just a couple. Regardless of the contrast, both games lived up to the hype.
The premier public/private rivalry in NEO is Mentor/St Ignatius. The premier public/private rivalry in SWO is St Xavier/Colerain. Coincidentally, both games were in Week 2. Unlike the offensive explosion in Lake County, the boys in Cincinnati had a defensive slugfest. Colerain won the game, 13-10, in overtime. Instead of 1,400 yards of offense, it was closer to 400. Instead of 17 touchdowns, there were just a couple. Regardless of the contrast, both games lived up to the hype.
What to Expect...
Heading into the season, I expected St Xavier to stand out on offense. They had a lot of returning talent. The Bombers scored 50 points in the first half of their Week 1 game with Covington Catholic (KY). Colerain found a way to slow down the Bombers in Week 2 as St X was limited to just 46 passing yards. The Bombers were committed to the run. Senior RB Sean Prophit is the go-to back as he had 75 of the team's 155 total rushing yards. Junior QB Sean Clifford, already a Penn State commitment, was limited to just seven completions.
St X will look to run the ball to set the tone, but don't be surprised if they open up their passing game more as Mentor comes to town. Unfortunately, Mentor didn't show much ability to stop the long ball. That should lead to the coaching staff trying to take advantage of their talented QB and skill players. Senior TE Noah Davis (Michigan State commit) will be a tough matchup for Mentor linebackers.
Mentor showcased their offense in a big way during Week 2. The trio of QB Tadas Tatarunas, WR Jason Blizzard, and RB Alex Mathews are getting some serious attention across the state. This balanced offense was clicking on all cylinders against St Ignatius. Considering the history of strong defense from St Xavier coach Steve Specht, the Cardinals will need to be on the top of their game. St X runs a similar defensive scheme as St Ignatius. The 3-3 stack defense is well suited to contain an active passing game. The ability to use 5 defensive backs who are comfortable in coverage will make it more difficult for Tatarunas to find an open receiver.
In order to win this game, Mentor will need to establish the running game. With just a three-man defensive front, it is imperative that Mentor's offensive line wins that battle. If Mathews can get to the second level of the defense, he is tough to bring down with his combination of strength and speed. Mentor's line will be key in opening up options for the passing game. If Tatarunas has the kind of time he did against St Ignatius, you can bet that Mentor will have a successful night on offense.
This is a classic clash of great offense versus great defense. In the past, Mentor has overcome some strong and talented defensive teams (see St Ignatius and St Edward in 2012 and 2013). Both of those teams had senior All-Ohio QB's. Tatarunas has been much better than expected, but the Bombers present his biggest challenge yet.
St X will look to run the ball to set the tone, but don't be surprised if they open up their passing game more as Mentor comes to town. Unfortunately, Mentor didn't show much ability to stop the long ball. That should lead to the coaching staff trying to take advantage of their talented QB and skill players. Senior TE Noah Davis (Michigan State commit) will be a tough matchup for Mentor linebackers.
Mentor showcased their offense in a big way during Week 2. The trio of QB Tadas Tatarunas, WR Jason Blizzard, and RB Alex Mathews are getting some serious attention across the state. This balanced offense was clicking on all cylinders against St Ignatius. Considering the history of strong defense from St Xavier coach Steve Specht, the Cardinals will need to be on the top of their game. St X runs a similar defensive scheme as St Ignatius. The 3-3 stack defense is well suited to contain an active passing game. The ability to use 5 defensive backs who are comfortable in coverage will make it more difficult for Tatarunas to find an open receiver.
In order to win this game, Mentor will need to establish the running game. With just a three-man defensive front, it is imperative that Mentor's offensive line wins that battle. If Mathews can get to the second level of the defense, he is tough to bring down with his combination of strength and speed. Mentor's line will be key in opening up options for the passing game. If Tatarunas has the kind of time he did against St Ignatius, you can bet that Mentor will have a successful night on offense.
This is a classic clash of great offense versus great defense. In the past, Mentor has overcome some strong and talented defensive teams (see St Ignatius and St Edward in 2012 and 2013). Both of those teams had senior All-Ohio QB's. Tatarunas has been much better than expected, but the Bombers present his biggest challenge yet.
Prediction...
Mentor got a big confidence boost with their Week 2 win over St Ignatius (their fourth win over the Cats in the last five games). St Xavier presents a different kind of challenge. Their offense isn't built like St Ignatius. After surrendering multiple quick touchdown drives last week, that is good news for Mentor. The "long ball" is not in the offensive scheme for the Bombers. That works in Mentor's favor. But don't expect St Xavier to be content with passing the ball just 14 times like they did in Week 2. They will likely open up the offense a bit and challenge a Mentor defense that has a lot to prove.
While St X should have one of the top defenses in Ohio, Mentor has a reputation of being one one of the top offenses. It works in Mentor's favor to have played an opponent like St Ignatius the last 10 years. Their 3-3 stack defense is the same scheme as St Xavier. Mentor has been able to exploit that scheme over the years. At other times, it has been a ruthless assault on the Mentor QB. How will Mentor's line react to the blitzes? We shall see.
Because St Xavier doesn't appear to have the kind of offensive threat that St Ignatius did, I don't expect this game to be in the 50's or 60's. If 35 or so points wins this game (and I think it will), I predict Mentor gets their first and wins this game.
Prediction: Mentor 38 St Xavier 35
While St X should have one of the top defenses in Ohio, Mentor has a reputation of being one one of the top offenses. It works in Mentor's favor to have played an opponent like St Ignatius the last 10 years. Their 3-3 stack defense is the same scheme as St Xavier. Mentor has been able to exploit that scheme over the years. At other times, it has been a ruthless assault on the Mentor QB. How will Mentor's line react to the blitzes? We shall see.
Because St Xavier doesn't appear to have the kind of offensive threat that St Ignatius did, I don't expect this game to be in the 50's or 60's. If 35 or so points wins this game (and I think it will), I predict Mentor gets their first and wins this game.
Prediction: Mentor 38 St Xavier 35
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